China’s population declines for the third year as births lag behind deaths

HONG KONG (Reuters) – China’s population fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, as deaths surpassed a modest rise in births, signalling an ongoing demographic crisis that experts warn will worsen in the coming years.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s total population dropped by 1.39 million, reaching 1.408 billion in 2024, compared to 1.409 billion in 2023. This marks a continued decline, reinforcing concerns about the country’s future economic stability as the workforce shrinks and the elderly population grows.

While the number of births in China rose slightly to 9.54 million in 2024 from 9.02 million in 2023, the death toll also decreased marginally from 11.1 million in 2023 to 10.93 million in 2024. However, the overall effect was a net population decline.

The birth rate increased slightly, reaching 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2024, up from 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023. Despite the modest rise in births, China’s population is still on a downward trajectory, driven by structural factors such as the long-lasting impacts of the one-child policy, rapid urbanisation, and economic pressures that discourage young people from starting families.

Experts have pointed to several key factors contributing to China’s declining birth rate. Many young Chinese adults, particularly in urban areas, face high childcare and education costs, job insecurity, and a slowing economy, all of which deter marriage and family formation. Gender discrimination and the societal expectation that women should bear the brunt of domestic work are also significant barriers.

“A large portion of China’s population decline is rooted in entrenched structural reasons,” noted Yun Zhou, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan. Without significant structural changes—from improving the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination—it is impossible to stop the population decline trend.

A rebound in marriages in 2023, largely driven by delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, led to a temporary increase in births in 2024. However, experts predict that marriage rates—and consequently birth rates—will likely fall again in 2025.

In response to the population crisis, Chinese authorities have implemented various measures to encourage higher birth rates. In December 2024, the government urged universities to integrate marriage and “love education” into their curriculums, promoting positive attitudes toward marriage, family, and childbearing.

Despite these efforts, the population of women of reproductive age (15 to 49) is projected to decline by more than two-thirds by the end of the century, potentially dropping to under 100 million. Meanwhile, the elderly population is set to grow significantly, with the number of people aged 60 and over expected to surpass 400 million by 2035.

The demographic shift is putting immense pressure on China’s pension system, which the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts will run out of funds by 2035.

As urbanisation continues to accelerate, China’s urban population grew by 10.83 million in 2024, reaching 943.3 million. In contrast, the rural population declined to 464.78 million.